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Report predicts modest increase in new and existing home sales
Feb 24, 2012
Housing markets across the nation are expected to remain steady in 2012 and 2013, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) first quarter 2012 Housing Market Outlook.
But while the national housing market is expected to remain steady, Manitoba wil experience gains this year and next.
CMHC said new-home construction, sales of existing homes and the average selling price of an existing home will all continue to increase at a modest pace during the next two years in Manitoba.
“With the Canadian economy set to expand at a moderate pace and mortgage rates expected to remain low, activity levels in 2012 in both new home construction and sales of existing homes will stay close to levels seen in 2011,” said Mathieu Laberge, deputy chief economist for CMHC.
National housing starts will be in the range of 164,000 to 212,700 units in 2012, with a point forecast of 190,000 units. In 2013, housing starts will be in the range of 168,900 to 219,300 units, with a point forecast of 193,800 units.
In Manitoba, it is expected that 2012 single-detached home starts will remain close to 2011 levels with 3,850 starts this year and 3,900 starts in 2013.
“Pent-up demand, driven by continued gains in population, wages and employment, will carry over into 2012,” according to CMHC.
“With supply rising to meet demand,” continued the report, “it is expected that price gains will moderate to around three per cent in both 2012 and 2013” in Manitoba.
Last year, the average price gain was six per cent, and the average price for an existing home was $256,748, according to WinnipegREALTORS® year-end statistics.
Existing home sales in Canada will be in the range of 406,000 to 504,500 units in 2012, with a point forecast of 457,300 units. In 2013, MLS® sales are expected to move up in the range of 417,600 to 517,400 units, with a point forecast of 468,200 units.
The average MLS® price is forecast to be between $330,000 and $410,000 in 2012 and between $335,000 and $430,000 in 2013. 
CMHC’s point forecast for the average MLS® price is $368,900 for 2012 and $379,000 for 2013. 
The moderate increases in the average MLS® price are consistent with the balanced market conditions that occurred in 2011, and that are expected to continue in 2012 and 2013.